Sarah Mckenzie
 

Will Foreign Policy Impact Black Voter Turnout in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Sarah McKenzie

Director of Program Strategy and Innovation, Solidarity Center, AFL-CIO

 

The Black vote is a significant factor in determining who will be our next president. However, polling suggests fewer Black people are interested in voting in the 2024 election compared to four years ago. According to a recent Washington Post-Ipsos poll, 62 percent of Black Americans are certain they will vote in the November presidential election, which is down a significant 12 points from the last election (Wootson, et al., 2024). Furthermore, the poll showed a drop in young Black voters with 41 percent saying they will certainly vote in November.

The economy and jobs, racism and racial discrimination, and healthcare are still top issues influencing Black Americans’ votes, with 82 percent expressing that domestic policy should be the focus of the next administration (Cox, 2024). However, Black voters care about foreign policy, and that will have some weight on the results of the 2024 election. In a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace survey of Black Americans, 83 percent of respondents reported foreign policy is important to their decision in the vote (Shell, 2023). Across parties (Democrats and Republicans), 39 percent expressed that foreign policy was very important in their voting decision.  

Race is a central theme and the lens through which Black Americans view the world and foreign policy efforts. According to a Carnegie survey, Black voters want the United States to lead in resolving global collective action issues such as preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (Shell, 2023), taking action on climate change, and fostering human rights and democracy globally (Cox, 2023). These issues are a priority for Black voters as they evaluate the immediate and long-standing foreign policy approaches in their voting decisions. For young Black voters, the current war in Gaza is a top foreign policy issue (Shell, 2023). 

Black Americans see the intersections between an increase in weapons of mass destruction, human rights and environmental justice. Uranium extraction and nuclear testing both have devastating impacts on Black people and on the environment in the regions — mainly Africa — where those activities take place. Black American see this as an example of the northern countries exploiting the Global South to achieve their agendas (Shell, 2023). More than half of Black voters (54 percent) want the U.S. to lead a coalition of countries to stop the proliferation of these weapons.

A Brookings poll indicates that the vast majority of Black voters (88 percent) are concerned about climate change (Donoghoe et al., 2023). Black voters’ concern is higher than the national average and they are also more likely to take action to support policies. Black Americans see that the impacts of climate change — including extreme heat, hurricanes and other severe weather conditions — are hitting the southern portion of the U.S. very hard. The concern Black voters have about climate change impacts at home, supports their need to have the U.S. take a leading role globally to address the degradation of the environment.

Black Americans have historically made the connection between the struggle for human rights and democracy here in the U.S., and struggles for decolonization across regions. We saw this in Black people’s rallying demand for divestment to support the eradication of Apartheid in South Africa. Black Americans also recognize new human rights challenges brought to the forefront through neo-colonialism and witnessed through foreign policy initiatives (Shell, 2023). 

Millions of Black Americans have served in the U.S. military. Today, Black Americans represent 14 percent of the population but make up 18 percent of the armed forces (Shell, 2023). However, Black voters do not widely support the U.S. leading an international response to the competition for power with China and Russia. A Carnegie survey reports that just 36 percent of Black people believe the U.S. should play a leading role in coordinating an international response to China’s rise, and 32 percent feel the U.S. should lead in providing military and humanitarian assistance to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia (Shell, 2023). This does not mean Black voters do not care about the people of Ukraine or Taiwan and other countries impacted by China, but they are not all necessarily in favor of the U.S. engaging in power struggles with other countries that may cost American lives.

Black voters in America are not a monolith; we consist of Black people from many regions of the world. Our worldviews go beyond the east coast versus west coast. In general, Black voters are practical and care about “kitchen table” issues. Like most Americans, we may not understand all the nuances of foreign policy. However, we do understand that our domestic issues are interconnected with our foreign policy. This means that if getting Black voters to the poll is a priority, candidates and campaigns should not ignore foreign policy and be sure to connect it to the domestic issues most important for Black people.

 

References

Cox, Kiana (May 20, 2024). An Early Look at Black Voters’ Views on Biden, Trump and Election 2024. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2024/05/20/an-early-look-at-black-voters-views-on-biden-trump-and-election-2024/ 

 

Donoghoe, M., Lall, J., & Perry, A. (December 13, 2023). Black Voters are More Concerned About Climate Change Than the National Average, with Implications for Policy and Messaging. The Brookings Institute. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/black-voters-are-more-concerned-about-climate-change-than-the-national-average-with-implications-for-policy-and-messaging/

 

Shell, Christopher. (February 21, 2023). How Black Americans Feel About the Possible Use of Military Force in Ukraine and Taiwan. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/02/how-black-americans-feel-about-the-possible-use-of-military-force-in-ukraine-and-taiwan?lang=en

 

Shell, Christopher. (August 2, 2023). Black Americans Don’t Vote on Foreign Policy, but They Are Paying Attention. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/08/black-americans-dont-vote-on-foreign-policy-but-they-are-paying-attention?lang=en

 

Shell, Christopher. (October 10, 2023). How Views on Race Relations Shape African Americans’ Foreign Policy Preferences. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/10/how-views-on-race-relations-shape-african-americans-foreign-policy-preferences?lang=en 

 

Shell, Christopher. (December 13, 2023). Black Americans’ Opinions on  the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/12/black-americans-opinions-on-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict?lang=en 

 

Wootson Jr., C.R., Guskin, E., Clement, S. (May 6, 2024). Fewer Black Americans Plan to Vote in 2024, Post-Ipsos Poll Finds. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/06/poll-biden-black-voters/